512
FXUS63 KICT 152034
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH MON AND TUE WITH COOLER READINGS
WED.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL ALSO BE IN AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER, MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO PUSH
THE AREA FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OK.
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE SET
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MON
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PULL
DOWN SOME COOLER AIR WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS ON WED CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. WE THEN LOOK TO GET INTO SOME NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WE ARE LOOKING FOR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THU WITH A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KS THIS
EVENING.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE AFTER 21Z AND TURN TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST KS
WITH AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE AREA AROUND
00Z. FOR NOW FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO RUN WITH IFR CIGS AT KCNU
THIS EVENING WITH SOME BR ALSO POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIFT BY MON MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS-IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MEANWHILE AT THE REMAINING SITES, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR
CONDITIONS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
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