343
FXUS63 KICT 152308
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR BOTH MON AND TUE WITH COOLER READINGS
WED.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIP NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AS THE UPPER WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. STILL LOOKING FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST KS THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL ALSO BE IN AN AREA OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HOWEVER, MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO PUSH
THE AREA FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST OK.
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE SET
TO TRACK OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MON
NIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PULL
DOWN SOME COOLER AIR WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS ON WED CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS. WE THEN LOOK TO GET INTO SOME NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THU
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WE ARE LOOKING FOR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THU WITH A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FOR FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINING
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE LOW CLOUDS WILL
PROVIDE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING INTO THE NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. FEELING CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE A PREVAILING IFR CIG AT
CNU PER HREF GUIDANCE AND NAM/RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, WHICH INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER CLOUDS AFTER 06Z OR SO. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND AMD AS NECESSARY, BUT WILL KEEP AT IFR FOR
NOW. CIGS WILL LIFT LATER ON IN THE EARLY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST AND GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JWK
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