529
FXUS63 KICT 172005
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
205 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG AND DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
- COLDER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- POSSIBLE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, AND AGAIN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
INCREASING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST MAY SUPPORT PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, SLACKENING WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN CONCERT WITH THE RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-
LEVELS COULD SUPPORT SOME PATCHY RADIATION FOG THIS EVENING FROM
ROUGHLY THE FLINT HILLS ON EAST. THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE,
JUST NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD IT'LL BE, SO WILL JUST STICK WITH
PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW AND LET THE EVENING SHIFT ASSESS FURTHER. THE
FOG POTENTIAL WILL DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND AND
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY ON BREEZY/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH FORECAST HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ONLY IN THE 40S.
THE ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS. DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
HELP DRIVE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUPPORTING BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY IN
THE 30S-40S.
PER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO THE 40S AND 50S IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THESE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK, WHEN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD PUSH 60 DEGREES IN
SPOTS PER ENSEMBLE OUTPUT.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR MOST THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. THEREAFTER, MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
INCREASING MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL ZONE TRAVERSE MID-AMERICA. COULD BE LOOKING AT ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, AS A
POTENTIALLY DEEPER/STRONGER TROUGH ENCROACHES ON THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH THIS FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. ONCE EVENING HITS THE INCREASED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GIVE WAY TO FOG DEVELOP WHICH COULD
LINGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KICK UP BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND SHOULD DECREASE IN THE MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...CDJ
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