389
FXUS63 KICT 192050
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
250 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WARMING TREND STARTING SUNDAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
- LOOKING TO BE DRY AND MILD FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS ONE UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY
SINKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE,
UPPER RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO THE OZARK REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION AS THEY TOP OUT IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER
IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO MO BY SAT MORNING.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON SAT AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN REMAINING ACTIVE
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL HELP TO FLATTEN-OUT THE UPPER
FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL ALSO ALLOW
RETURN FLOW TO START A WARMING TREND. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
MAXES ON SUN WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH THESE READINGS CONTINUING
INTO MON. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP SOME RAINFALL CHANCES IN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AS AN UPPER IMPULSE QUICKLY
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HOLDS SOME OF THIS ENERGY FURTHER
NORTH COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA GETTING WET. SO THERE IS A CHANCE RAIN MAY NOT
ONLY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR CHRISTMAS WITH
SOME SMALL RAINFALL CHANCES BEING INTRODUCED FOR WED NIGHT INTO
THU AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH THROUGH
MID-AMERICA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK
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