788
FXUS63 KICT 201117
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
517 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY; WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
- RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY, NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH HAS SLID THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 20
DEGREES BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING. COUPLING IN THESE NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR 20 MPH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSITIONING INTO TONIGHT, THE ACTIVE MIDLEVEL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING THROUGH UPPER AND MID
MO VALLEY. ASIDE FROM A FEW MIDLEVEL CLOUDS, THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSAGE WILL REMAIN DRY. MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN THE 40S BY
SATURDAY AND THE 50S BY SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT, SHUNTING A WEAK
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. LIKE THE PRIOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSAGES, LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS PASSAGE AND DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR CHRISTMAS
EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ARE EXPECTED. A MORE-ROBUST MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND MAY SUPPORT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS POINT, THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
AN ALL-RAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY. WIND SPEEDS BY THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE AROUND OR UNDER 5 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JC
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