862
FXUS63 KICT 202327
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
527 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
- THE POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE BUILDING ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND AS
WELL, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TRYING TO EXPAND THESE
RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WHICH
COULD ALLOW LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 50 TO SEE SOME
RAIN. FORCING IS STRONG AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE,
SO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE (0.25-0.50 INCHES).
AFTER TUESDAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING, WITH A TRAIN OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING MID-AMERICA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE BOUTS OF
RAIN LATE WEEK, AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
SURROUNDING THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE UPPER
TROUGHS. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE
COMING DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL STAY MOSTLY IF NOT ALL LIQUID, AS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER IMPULSE TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN
PLACE ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
WILL GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY SAT AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
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