306
FXUS63 KICT 210441
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1041 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
- THE POTENTIAL IS LOW FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 7-10
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE BUILDING ATMOSPHERIC HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND AS
WELL, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING WELL INTO THE 50S BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S.
AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE TRYING TO EXPAND THESE
RAIN CHANCES A BIT FURTHER NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WHICH
COULD ALLOW LOCATIONS AS FAR NORTH AS ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 50 TO SEE SOME
RAIN. FORCING IS STRONG AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE,
SO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE (0.25-0.50 INCHES).
AFTER TUESDAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING, WITH A TRAIN OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRAVERSING MID-AMERICA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE BOUTS OF
RAIN LATE WEEK, AND AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
SURROUNDING THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE UPPER
TROUGHS. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE
COMING DAYS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL STAY MOSTLY IF NOT ALL LIQUID, AS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
AVIATION CONCERNS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD.
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LEE
TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CO. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS SLOWLY
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page