326
FXUS63 KICT 211120
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
520 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL DAY TODAY, MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE, AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
EARLY THIS MORNING, A RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
COUNTRY WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE MID-
WEST AND NEW ENGLAND AREAS AND STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS CURRENTLY SITS UNDERNEATH A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO
INCONSEQUENTIALLY PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THEIR REBOUND WITH LOW TO MID 40S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN,
AND LOWS WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE CENTRAL CONUS
FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF MID/UPPER RIDGING, AND PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD, WEAK ASCENT ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
CHRISTMAS EVE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE THOUGH, AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END
BY MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAVE CHRISTMAS DAY TO BE MILD, DRY, AND
CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM RAMPS UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION
AFTER CHRISTMAS DAY FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID, WE
WILL BE TRACKING A SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE AREA AT THE END OF THE WEEK IF THE TRACK OF SAID SYSTEM IS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH. CHANCES FOR ICE OR SNOW ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WIND SPEEDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC
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