269
FXUS63 KICT 220450
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1050 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL DAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY EVENING INTO MID DAY CHRISTMAS
EVE (TUESDAY) ACROSS SOUTHERN ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
- CHANCES (20-30%) OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY AREA WIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
CHALLENGES: PRECIPITATION CHANCES/COVERAGE NEXT WEEK
CHANGES: INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TODAY IS WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WINDS WERE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE IS A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WITH A
RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS DEPENDING ON THE
LEVEL. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST; MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST NEAR TO JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL WITH VALUES AROUND 25
DEGREES.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
A SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS SYSTEM STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AREA WIDE WITH HIGHER PERCENTAGES
IN THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. FOR MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THE
PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH VALUES OF 40-60% NOW. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, THE
VALUES RANGE FROM A SLIGHT (15%) CHANCE TO A CHANCE (35%) WITH
THE HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. GIVEN THE THERMAL
PROFILE, RAIN WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THURSDAY, A COUPLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SYSTEM AND GREATER POOL OF
MOISTURE. THE NBM HAS A SLIGHT INCREASE (5% HIGHER) IN THOSE
CHANCES. SINCE THIS IS IN THE LATTER PART OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE CHANCES MAY INCREASE FURTHER
IN UPCOMING ISSUANCES IF THIS TREND PERSISTS. EVEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR RESPECTIVE STRENGTHS AND
LOCATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM THOUGH. BASED ON THE ENSEMBLES, BOTH
PERIODS HAVE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATED. BOTH
SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY. THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
HINTED AT FOR NEXT WEEKEND THAT COULD BE INTERESTING TO FOLLOW.
CHRISTMAS DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED TO BE DRY, CLOUDY AND MILD
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. THE ONGOING
FORECAST WAS FAIRLY REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT THOUGHTS AND
TRENDS OTHER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED CHANGES; THUS MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL CHANGES WERE MADE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
AVIATION CONCERNS STILL LOOKING TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LEE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT INTO SUN AS THE UPPER
PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE WITH
A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH ON SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...RBL
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