270
FXUS63 KICT 151115
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
515 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY.
- BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
LIKELY, COLDEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE WEST OF I-135 SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER WEST-SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
FOG:
PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER SNOW COVERED
AREAS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, AS WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON JUST HOW WIDESPREAD THIS FOG WILL GET GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS, SO FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH PATCHY WORDING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PRECIPITATION:
PREDAWN HOURS--THIS MORNING...CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRAY FLURRIES
OVER MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF KANSAS, AS AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, SUSPECT MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WON'T REACH THE GROUND GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES.
FRIDAY EVENING--NIGHT...MID-UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG AND DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
(PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW) OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. RAIN
AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, AND NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FURTHER EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY NIGHT--TUESDAY...A STRONG AND DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE IN
CONCERT WITH UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD
SUPPORT PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES, MAINLY WEST OF
GENERALLY I-135. AT THIS TIME THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.
THINKING BETTER SNOW CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND POINTS WESTWARD, WHERE OVERLAP OF BETTER UPPER
DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EXIST, WHERE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES:
TODAY--FRIDAY...THE RATHER SHALLOW AND CHILLY AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN
RETREATING/ERODING EASTWARD TODAY, AS LOW-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST..
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY
READINGS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK, AS LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 40S-50S LOOK LIKELY, WARMEST OVER SNOW-FREE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS, MUCH COLDER AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT, IN
WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT BLASTING SOUTH ACROSS THE
COUNTRY. THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, AND DAYTIME HIGHS
ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS DURING ESPECIALLY THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS AROUND 10 TO 15 BELOW.
CONSEQUENTLY, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS WIND
CHILL ADVISORY) MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. ADDITIONALLY, COULD BE
FLIRTING WITH RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY IF
THE COLDEST MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG THROUGH MID TO LATE THIS MORNING, AS WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE
CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FOG IS DIMINISHING, SO ONLY INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS FOR 2-5SM IN BR. THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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