160
FXUS63 KICT 152056
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
256 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT WARMING TREND TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
- BITTER COLD ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS REMAIN LIKELY, WITH
THE COLDEST VALUES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES LIE IN WESTERN KANSAS, THOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES MAY FIND THEIR WAY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. NO ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES STRONG UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS A JET MAX BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE WEST HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR TODAY AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT BISECTS THE STATE.
PRECIPITATION...
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT...MID/UPPER ENERGY WILL ROLL OFF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR LIGHT RAIN (AND POTENTIALLY LIGHT SNOW) IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHER CHANCES CONTINUE TO RESIDE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP BETTER MOISTURE. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR
MEANINGFUL RAIN STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
WEST OF I-135. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CHANCES IN WESTERN
KANSAS, THOUGH IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW FLURRIES
FALLING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECAST CYCLES AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
TEMPERATURES...
THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL LARGELY REACH INTO THE 40S
AND 50S, WITH READINGS NEAR 60 LIKELY IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS WITH SNOWPACK.
SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, MUCH COLDER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A POWERFUL
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE COLDEST AIR WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 20S AND 30S ON SATURDAY TO THE TEENS AND 20S ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS ON SATURDAY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING, SO LATER CYCLES MAY NEED TO ISSUE A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AS CONFIDENCE IN THESE EXTREME VALUES INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY, LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOW "HIGH" TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP MORE OF A
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT ALL SITES. COULD SEE THE RETURN OF SOME FOG IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS PER SHORT-TERM MODEL
PROBABILITIES, BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JWK
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