198
FXUS63 KICT 161738
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- BITTER COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
PRECIPITATION:
FRIDAY EVENING...MID-UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG AND DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT,
WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
SATURDAY--MONDAY...A STRONG AND DEEP COLD FRONTAL ZONE IN CONCERT
WITH UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COULD SUPPORT
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES, MAINLY WEST OF GENERALLY I-135.
AT THIS TIME THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS. THINKING
BETTER SNOW CHANCES WILL EXIST WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE
OVERLAP OF BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW EXIST.
TEMPERATURES:
TODAY--FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEEK'S END,
AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 40S-50S LOOK LIKELY, WARMEST OVER SNOW-
FREE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
READINGS NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT--EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTH FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, IN WAKE OF A STRONG ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BLASTING SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE COLDEST AIR LOOKS TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO, AND DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S. BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS DURING
ESPECIALLY THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY, POSSIBLY AS
COLD AS AROUND 10 TO 15 BELOW. CONSEQUENTLY, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
(PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS WIND CHILL ADVISORY) MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
ADDITIONALLY, COULD BE FLIRTING WITH RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
MONDAY IF THE COLDEST MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY.
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 45-50KT LLJ NEAR 1.4KFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LLWS CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING AS SURFACE GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF
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