561
FXUS63 KICT 162019
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
219 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
- A STRAY SPRINKLE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TOMORROW EVENING
- MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK; WIND CHILL VALUES
LIKELY BELOW ZERO
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGING WAS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BISECT THE FORECAST
AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF I-135 AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WEST OF
I-135. EVEN WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS ALL AREAS NORTHWEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE, TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL
SITES. IN FACT, SOUTHEAST KS IS NEARING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SNOWPACK AND THE 50S/60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS.
TRANSITIONING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING, A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SHUNTING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS COULD POSE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 0S
BY SUNDAY MORNING. COUPLING IN A NORTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-15 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 0 TO -10 SUNDAY MORNING. A STOUT
1040 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEAR-ZERO
DEGREE AIR TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN, A GENTLE NORTHERLY
WIND WILL SEND WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS -15 WITH COLDEST
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED,
SHOULD THESE TRENDS HOLD, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
WHILE THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BRING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO OUR
AREA, IT WILL SHUNT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS CONSISTENT AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE
BEST SNOW CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND AN ADDITIONAL COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 0 ONCE AGAIN. FACTORING
IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY SEND WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS -
20. AGAIN, THE COLDEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 20S AND 30S TUESDAY AND THE 30S TO
NEAR 40 FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 45-50KT LLJ NEAR 1.4KFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH LLWS CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING AS SURFACE GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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