469
FXUS63 KICT 170510
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1110 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
- A STRAY SPRINKLE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TOMORROW EVENING
- MUCH COLDER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK; WIND CHILL VALUES
LIKELY BELOW ZERO
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SHORTWAVE MIDLEVEL RIDGING WAS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO BISECT THE FORECAST
AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EAST OF I-135 AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WEST OF
I-135. EVEN WITH REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS ALL AREAS NORTHWEST OF
THE KS TURNPIKE, TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL
SITES. IN FACT, SOUTHEAST KS IS NEARING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SURGING
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE SNOWPACK AND THE 50S/60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS.
TRANSITIONING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING, A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SHUNTING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS COULD POSE A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER POTENTIAL FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S AND 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUED COLD
AIR ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 0S
BY SUNDAY MORNING. COUPLING IN A NORTHERLY BREEZE AT 10-15 MPH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES FROM 0 TO -10 SUNDAY MORNING. A STOUT
1040 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NEAR-ZERO
DEGREE AIR TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING. AGAIN, A GENTLE NORTHERLY
WIND WILL SEND WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS -15 WITH COLDEST
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED,
SHOULD THESE TRENDS HOLD, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.
WHILE THE 1040 MB HIGH WILL BRING THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR TO OUR
AREA, IT WILL SHUNT ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS CONSISTENT AMONGST MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE
BEST SNOW CHANCES REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH AND AN ADDITIONAL COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS APPROACHING 0 ONCE AGAIN. FACTORING
IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY SEND WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS -
20. AGAIN, THE COLDEST VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE 20S AND 30S TUESDAY AND THE 30S TO
NEAR 40 FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR TONIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, BY
THE TIME YOU GET TO 2,000FT, THEY WILL BE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIND SHEAR WILL LET UP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, FLIPPING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
GUSTY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KRSL-KGBD-KSLN IN THE
18-20Z RANGE AND KICT-KHUT IN THE 21-23Z RANGE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST AN INCREASE AND HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
FRI AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...RBL
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