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FXUS63 KICT 170935
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE MILD DAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR.
- SUBZERO WIND CHILLS BEGINNING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE.
- LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WHERE PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. MORE SNOW MELT IS
EXPECTED BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. POST-
FRONTAL WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WERE INCREASED WHERE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION/LARGE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SPRINKLES WERE ALSO MAINTAINED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES TO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH SLRS BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIND CHILLS
PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE 5 TO 18 BELOW RANGE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS, LOWEST ON MON-TUE MORNINGS.
WED-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL AIR IN PLACE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME WIND SHEAR TONIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT, BY
THE TIME YOU GET TO 2,000FT, THEY WILL BE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WIND SHEAR WILL LET UP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, FLIPPING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING
GUSTY. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH KRSL-KGBD-KSLN IN THE
18-20Z RANGE AND KICT-KHUT IN THE 21-23Z RANGE. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH JUST AN INCREASE AND HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
FRI AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL
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