038
FXUS63 KICT 171118
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
518 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE MILD DAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR.
- SUBZERO WIND CHILLS BEGINNING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE.
- LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
ANOTHER MILD DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THIS SHOULD HELP
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WHERE PREFRONTAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. MORE SNOW MELT IS
EXPECTED BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. POST-
FRONTAL WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WERE INCREASED WHERE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION/LARGE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SPRINKLES WERE ALSO MAINTAINED OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES TO THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH SLRS BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIND CHILLS
PROGGED TO FALL INTO THE 5 TO 18 BELOW RANGE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS, LOWEST ON MON-TUE MORNINGS.
WED-THU...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA KEEPING SEASONABLY COOL AIR IN PLACE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TAFS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING BEFORE
LETTING UP. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST IN
THE WAKE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. VFR IS ANTICIPATED WITH CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL KS AS WE
MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
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