467
FXUS63 KICT 191651
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1051 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW FLURRIES ON MONDAY.
- WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN KANSAS TODAY
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JAN RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST AREAS. A SUBTLE SYSTEM
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BRINGING
INCREASING CLOUDS AS WE MOVE INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS.
MONDAY...WE EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS A ROBUST
AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS SWEEPS OVER SOUTHWEST KS BRUSHING PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
MAY REMAIN JUST WEST OF OUR AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SUBTLE SYSTEM ON MONDAY
AND AS THE 1040+ MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUE, WE'LL SEE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. AREAS WITH A
DUSTING OF FRESH SNOW WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 5 BELOW RANGE OR POSSIBLY LOWER.
TUE-SAT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ON TUESDAY, BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RETURN TO KANSAS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO MODERATE. IT'LL
REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JAN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WED WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. A COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL USHER IN
SOME SEASONABLY COOL AIR ON THU WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE MID/UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RISING TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS ON SAT CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A FEW
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY, NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THEN BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN, AND LOWER VIS CATS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT TAF
SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AT THIS TIME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC
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