287
FXUS63 KICT 192106
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.
- VERY AIR TO LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK, THEN MILDER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
REST OF TONIGHT... A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENVELOP
MUCH OF THE CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE POLAR JET LAID OUT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO, BUT A SURFACE
RIDGE ENTERING THE REGION WILL HELP TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY, QUELL WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SOME DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY DUE TO THE DIFFERENCE
IN SURFACE HEATING BETWEEN WHERE THE SNOW PACK EXISTS AND WHERE
IT DOESN'T. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING.
MONDAY SNOW... DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THE
MID LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE SETTLED ON A LOBE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL VORTICITY
QUICKLY TRAVERSING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR.
WITH FORCING SO LOCALIZED AND QUICK-MOVING, MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ONLY EXPERIENCE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS
COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KINGMAN AND HARPER COUNTIES. SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED AND
ELEVATED ROADWAYS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MINOR. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END MONDAY
EVENING, BUT FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
MONDAY NIGHT-THE WEEKEND... ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD BEHIND SNOW, AND BITTER ARCTIC AIR WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE REGION. CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS, THANKS TO A STOUT
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING INTO THE AREA, WILL SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE EXITING EASTWARD TUESDAY
MORNING, SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE, AND
A PERIOD OF BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 AND 25 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO IS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A LESS COLD AIRMASS
TAKES HOLD BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY RETURN AS SOON
AS WEDNESDAY, AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND. THOSE LOOKING FOR ANY APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
AFTER MONDAY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT A FEW
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY, NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT, THEN BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS
SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN, AND LOWER VIS CATS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT TAF
SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE THE MORNING OF JANUARY 21
-WICHITA: FORECAST: -3 RECORD: -7 IN 1935
-SALINA: FORECAST: -10 RECORD: -7 IN 1935
-RUSSELL: FORECAST: -8 RECORD: -8 IN 1966
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JC
CLIMATE...JC
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