887
FXUS63 KICT 202035
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
235 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW COMING TO AN END LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KS.
- DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IN AFFECT.
- WHILE "WARMER" TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER TUE, MOST LOCATIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, PROVIDING WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW IS AFFECTING SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK AND IS DEVELOPING
ALONG 925-850MB FRONTOGENESIS. WE SAW SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME VERY LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. RAN WITH A SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW VISIBILITY WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW
BAND. AREA OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE
MOSTLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z.
STILL LOOKING FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR TO
AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AND TEMPS TO PLUMMET. SOME RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. LUCKILY WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. SO CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS TO OCCUR
IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS.
EVEN THOUGH WE ARE LOOKING FOR HIGHER MAX TEMPS ON TUE, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL VERY COLD WITH LOW WIND
CHILLS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
BY 00Z WED, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER
UPPER IMPULSE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUE NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
REINFORCE THE UPPER TROUGH AND WILL ALLOW BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ON WED. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THU
WITH UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
ON THU, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. UPPER TROUGH
WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST ON FRI AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHERN CA/GREAT
BASIN ON FRI NIGHT. LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION ALONG WITH TEMPS FINALLY
GETTING INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOW 50S FOR FRIDAY. WE LOOK TO
GET INTO A SPLIT FLOW REGIME FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH THE WESTERN
CONUS LOW GETTING CUTOFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THIS
SETUP WILL KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS REMAINING IN PLACE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS, IT APPEARS AS
THOUGH SNOW HAS COME TO AN END ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KGBD-KEMP LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND IFR TO LIFR VIS CATS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING,
SNOW CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA, AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE.
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES INTO
THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TUESDAY
MORNING, AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SUN JAN 19 2025
RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE THE MORNING OF JANUARY 21
WICHITA: FORECAST: -4 RECORD: -7 IN 1935
SALINA: FORECAST: -10 RECORD: -7 IN 1935
RUSSELL: FORECAST: -7 RECORD: -8 IN 1966
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ069-
082-083-091>093.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC
CLIMATE...RBL
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