649
FXUS63 KICT 211835
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1235 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS BITTER COLD THIS MORNING!
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SUBZERO TEMPERATURES WERE COMMON, ESPECIALLY WHERE A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED. AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY, WE'LL SEE AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FORCE ALLOWING BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN TO
THE AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY. IT'LL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY REINFORCING THE
PERSISTENT MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WED NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION APPEAR LOW AT
THIS TIME BUT EACH SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY AS MID/UPPER RIDGING
TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MANY AREAS WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S.
SAT-MON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY WILL DRIVE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD ZONE OF H7 WAA WILL BRING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO SOUTHEAST KS ON SUNDAY WHERE
SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY GROWS AS
WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL LEAN
TOWARD SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY AT MOST
TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT, WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN AROUND
15KTS HOWEVER WINDS APPROXIMATELY 1500FT AGL WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 45 KTS. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO LLWS FROM
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS KANSAS TOMORROW SWITCHING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTH BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...GC/WI
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