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FXUS63 KICT 220436
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A BRIEF WARM
UP ON FRIDAY.
- SEASONABLY-COOL TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY
AND LAST THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES STRONG UPPER FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE IS FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRIGID BOUNDARY AND IS
ALLOWING FOR GUSTY SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 20S, WITH READINGS
NEAR 30 POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL RACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE,
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN LOW AT
THIS TIME. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE THE
REINFORCING OF THE ALREADY-COOL AIRMASS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
MIDDLE AMERICA.
MID-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BY FRIDAY, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF LARGELY
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (LOW TO UPPER 40S). THIS BREAK
FROM THE COLD WILL BE BRIEF, AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING
ACROSS ALBERTA AND ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
PRECLUDE CHANCES FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, THE BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN THE RETURN OF BELOW-
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
(30S) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ELEVATED WAA WILL DRIVE LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING IMPACTFUL
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW THIS FAR OUT AS MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES
HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. AS SUCH, THE CURRENT
FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE RECENT TREND OF DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25
KT. OTHERWISE, LLWS CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ARE
WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ NEAR 1.4KFT OVERHEAD. LLWS CONDITIONS WILL
SUBSIDE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10
KT WITH SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF
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