076
FXUS63 KICT 160441
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1041 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TODAY IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A WINTER
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
- COLD AND WINDY SUNDAY, THEN DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A LIFTING LONGWAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A SECONDARY JET MAX APPROACHES THE PACIFIC
COAST. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA AS LOW PRESSURE TREKS EASTWARD OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
THIS SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A FAST-MOVING BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE FLINT HILLS AND INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AS THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CARRIES A MAXIMUM OF 1 INCH OF
ACCUMULATED SNOW THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRIEFLY PRECLUDE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH
THIS FLOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME ZONAL BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE JET MAXIMIZES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS
FEATURE PLACES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION AND THEREFORE SUGGESTS BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
EMBEDDED POCKETS OF ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN A STOUT MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STOUT SNOWFALL RATES IN A
LINE EXTENDING FROM RUSSELL ON SOUTHEAST TOWARD CHANUTE. STILL A BIT
EARLY TO FORECAST EXACT SNOW TOTALS, THOUGH NBM PROBABILITIES CARRY
MODERATE TO HIGH (>60%) CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN AREAS
EAST OF I-135. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT,
THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THE WEST AS
ADDITIONAL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST
CYCLES AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF THIS
EVENT.
TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT COLD AIR INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE RECENT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS, THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SUB- TO NEAR-ZERO WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
REACH THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOW 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND TURN WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS A
STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
SUBSEQUENTLY, SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PRESIDE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S,
WHILE CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S ONCE AGAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...
BIG CHANGES ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED
ARCTIC AIRMASS SURGES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS,
WITH WEDNESDAY HIGHS LIKELY HOVERING NEAR ZERO FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHERMORE, THE COMBINATION OF FRIGID AIR AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM
15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS SUCH, A
COLD WEATHER WATCH/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN LATER FORECAST
CYCLES AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT
IS ALREADY MODERATE TO HIGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG THE
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND EXTREME FORECAST TOOLS SUCH AS THE
EFI, WHOSE VALUES OF -0.95 TO -1 INDICATE A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
AN EXTREME EVENT SIMILAR TO THAT OF FEBRUARY 2021.
THE EXTREME COLD IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING "WARMER"
AIR BACK TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL LOOK TO RETURN TO THE 20S AND 30S
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD
DAWN. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WHILE VFR PREVAILS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM
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