703
FXUS63 KICT 160914
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEEK'S END,
WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
- MODEST TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST:
* EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL, SOUTH-
CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
* ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ALL OF CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
TODAY...PATCHY VERY LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL IMPACT EASTERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS MORNING (BEFORE 9 AM), AS A LOBE OF MID-UPPER ENERGY
RACES EAST OVER MID-AMERICA, AND LOW-LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO
ESSENTIALLY LIE WITHIN THE SNOW-GROWTH ZONE. ABSOLUTELY NO
ACCUMULATION OR ADVERSE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE A
CHILLY DAY, AS COLD ADVECTION AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS SUPPORT SUB-
ZERO WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING, "WARMING" INTO THE TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT--MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD BRUSH RUSSELL-LINCOLN-SALINE-ELLSWORTH
COUNTIES, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
AT LEAST A FEW ROWS OF COUNTIES NORTH OF THERE.
MONDAY NIGHT--WEEK'S END...PER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS,
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR IS SLATED TO BLAST SOUTH INTO THE REGION
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT, AND PERSISTING THROUGH LATE WEEK, AS CENTRAL
NORTH AMERICAN LOW PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS,
ALLOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE SOUTH
ACROSS THE CONUS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO ARE LOOKING INCREASINGLY
PROBABLE, WHICH COULD SHATTER SOME RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL SUPPORT
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE, ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FURTHERMORE, MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-DURATION SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHING INTERACTS WITH
THE STRONG/DEEP ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE.
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION. OF NOTE...MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE
HEAVIEST SNOW PROBABILITIES A TAD FURTHER SOUTH EACH MODEL RUN.
GIVEN THE STRONG LIFT AND COLD TEMPERATURES, SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE HIGH (AT LEAST 20:1), SO IT WON'T
TAKE MUCH MOISTURE TO ACCUMULATE SNOWFALL. GIVEN THESE HIGH SLRS
AND LONG-DURATION OF LIFT, 6-10+ INCHES IS A VERY REAL
POSSIBILITY, HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS PER MODEL TRENDS.
GIVEN THE MODEST TO HIGH CONFIDENCE, WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE
WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STAY
TUNED, AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE THE LOCATION OF GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, POOR VISIBILITIES, AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIX OUT FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD
DAWN. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WHILE VFR PREVAILS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ052-053-069>072-093>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
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