789
FXUS63 KICT 162327
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
527 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL
KANSAS, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- SNOW RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AND LASTS
THROUGH TUESDAY. BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL RESULT IN POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
- ARCTIC AIR BRINGS EXTREME COLD TO THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY. MORNING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 25 BELOW ZERO
ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A LIFTING LONGWAVE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND CONTINUES TO DRIVE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE COLD AIRMASS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
THE REGION WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S,
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
850 MB WAA ARISING FROM THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUNDING PROFILES
INDICATE MUCH BETTER SATURATION DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN NORTHERN
KANSAS THAN IN CENTRAL KANSAS. AS SUCH, SNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND IN
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 THROUGH ~6 AM. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
MONDAY EVENING THRU TUESDAY EVENING...
INCREASINGLY-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND BRING THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVER THE
AREA BY EVENING/NIGHT. RESULTANT THERMALLY-DIRECT ASCENT WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOWFALL MONDAY
EVENING THROUGHOUT THE REGION. EMBEDDED POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MAY SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW RATES AT TIMES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WHICH WHEN PAIRED WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT
IN BLOWING SNOW, POOR VISIBILITIES, AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BULLSEYE OF MAXIMUM SNOWFALL IN THE 6-
10" RANGE IN AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-35 EXTENDING TOWARD THE ARKANSAS-
MISSOURI BORDER. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, 4-8" ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED PER CURRENT GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. MAGNITUDE HAS
TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES PER GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
LIKE THE EURO, SO STAY TUNED AS SHORT-TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
BEGIN TO GIVE US A CLEARER IDEA OF WHAT TO EXPECT FOR THIS
POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT EVENT. SNOW SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY
EVENING.
TEMPERATURES
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ARRIVAL OF FRIGID ARCTIC
AIR ARRIVING IN THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE LARGELY
EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE
OF FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS. ADDITIONALLY, OVERNIGHT LOWS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO COUPLED WITH WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH WILL SUPPORT WIND
CHILLS COLDER THAN 15 BELOW (POTENTIALLY DOWN TO 25 BELOW) DURING
THIS PERIOD. AS SUCH, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
IN CENTRAL KANSAS DURING LATER FORECAST CYCLES. STAY TUNED AS WE
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS THREAT.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY AND ALLOW
FOR "WARMER" TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT NBM GUIDANCE SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE 20S ON
FRIDAY, THEN A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY WHILE GRADUALLY
BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID LVL CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF SNOW FLURRIES BUT VFR IS EXPECT TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE 24-HR PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM
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