555
FXUS63 KICT 171149
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
549 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEEK'S END, WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT, AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGHEST OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF
KANSAS. STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, AND DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CHANGES SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST:
* UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING GENERALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-135.
* UPGRADED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO A WARNING AREAWIDE.
EARLY THIS MORNING...AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS, WITHIN A ZONE OF DEEP FRONTOGENESIS AND WARM ADVECTION.
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD BRUSH RUSSELL-LINCOLN-SALINE-
ELLSWORTH COUNTIES, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THERE.
WINTER STORM TONIGHT--TUESDAY EVENING...MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-DURATION
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, AS
UPPER TROUGHING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG/DEEP ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE OOZING IN FROM THE NORTH.
THE SNOW WILL IMPACT PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN THREE-QUARTERS OF
KANSAS TONIGHT, EXPANDING INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LONG-DURATION STRONG LIFT
AMIDST A DEEP LAYER OF VERY COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY
HIGH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS (15-20:1), WHICH WILL MAKE IT EASIER
TO ACCUMULATE SNOW. CONSEQUENTLY, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE
SEE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 8-10+ INCHES.
WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MINOR WIGGLES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS,
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO STRONGLY FAVOR
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ACROSS
A LARGE SWATH OF THE REGION, WITH POTENTIAL FOR AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 6-8+ INCHES HIGHEST OVER GENERALLY THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER
OF KANSAS. THE GFS HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT, AND HIGH
RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS TRICKLING IN WITH IMPRESSIVE
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET, WHICH HAD A NOTICEABLE
DOWNWARD TREND IN QPF/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BECAUSE OF THIS
UNCERTAINTY, HELD ONTO THE WINTER STORM WATCH GENERALLY WEST OF
I-135, AND UPGRADED TO A WARNING ALONG/EAST OF I-135 WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OF ACHIEVING AT LEAST 5 INCHES. TODAY'S
DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY MAKE THE FINAL DECISION ON WHETHER TO
UPGRADE THE WATCH TO AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. STAY TUNED, AS WE
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE LOCATION OF GREATEST FORECAST
ACCUMULATIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, POOR VISIBILITIES, AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT--LATE WEEK...PER DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS, BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR IS SLATED TO BLAST
SOUTH INTO THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT, AND PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE WEEK, AS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICAN LOW PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS, ALLOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
TRENDED A TAD COLDER THE PAST FEW RUNS, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS
ARE LIKELY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO, WHICH SHOULD BREAK
RECORD COLD HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN FRIDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SUPPORT DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AS
COLD AS AROUND 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. GIVEN THE EXCELLENT
MODEL CONSENSUS AND ASSOCIATED HIGH CONFIDENCE, UPGRADED THE
EXTREME COLD WATCH TO A WARNING ALL AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THEREAFTER, A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL START
OOZING IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND
MVFR CEILINGS IN ITS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER ENERGY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTING WITH THE STRONG/DEEP
FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITHIN THIS SNOW, CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR
OR LOWER FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 2-3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091-092.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ049-051>053-068>072-083-093>096-098>100.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK
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