534
FXUS63 KICT 180449
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1049 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL BEGINS LATE TONIGHT, LASTING
THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHEST TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW, POOR
VISIBILITY, AND OVERALL DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT AND PERSISTS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES
BELOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CHANGES SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
* A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A MID/UPPER JET MAX
SPANNING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KENTUCKY HAS ALLOWED
FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY, WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH HAVE OBSERVED EASTERLY WINDS.
SNOW TONIGHT THRU TUESDAY EVENING...
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY TUMBLE
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED ARCTIC
AIRMASS PUSHES ITS WAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER JET TO RESULT IN SNOW IMPACTING THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE STATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH,
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE ITSELF. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BANDS OF
LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS ALLOWING FOR SNOWFALL RATES
AROUND 1"/HR ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAMES. THESE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES PAIRED WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES, BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, AND OVERALL DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE VARIABILITY BETWEEN MODEL
RUNS REGARDING TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
WHILE SOME MODELS (EURO/UKMET) HAVE TRENDED HIGHER TOTALS DOWN AND
FURTHER SOUTH, HIGH-RESOLUTION AND REGIONAL MODELS (NAM/HRRR/RAP,
ETC.) HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF
POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY HIGH AMOUNTS. AS SUCH, THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 4-6 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPWARDS OF 8+ INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AS STATED BEFORE, EMBEDDED BANDS OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL ARE LIKELY PER HI-RES SOLUTIONS, SO LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...
IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL ALSO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
HOLD VALUES AROUND 20-30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES EXPECTED IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
WIND CHILLS BACK OFF SLIGHTLY BY FRIDAY MORNING (AROUND -10) BEFORE
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DEPARTS THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN MODELS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 20S ON FRIDAY AND
40S ON SATURDAY. THESE WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS
SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND INHIBITS DAYTIME WARMING TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO
25 OR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ALTHOUGH KRSL AND KGBD MAY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD 00Z WED.
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067-068.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR KSZ069>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM
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