687
FXUS63 KICT 180922
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
322 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM PERSISTING TODAY, GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO HIGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY,
ALONG WITH STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CREATING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW, AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. HAZARDOUS TO
DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR PERSISTING THROUGH WEEK'S END,
WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT
TIMES.
- MILD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WINTER STORM THROUGH THIS EVENING...
SNOW HAS BEGUN SPREADING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS, AS
STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS COMMENCED. HAVE NOT RECEIVED
ANY REPORTS AS OF YET, BUT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SNOW HAS BEEN
HEAVIEST AND MOST PROLONGED GENERALLY ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE
HIGHWAY 56 AND 50 CORRIDOR ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHERE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE COULD REACH UP TO AROUND 2-4
INCHES IN SPOTS.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THIS MORNING,
EXPECTING THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
KS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING FRONTOGENESIS.
THEREAFTER, PER SHORT-TERM MODEL CONSENSUS, THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL SHOULD THEN SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, AS A
SECONDARY ZONE OF STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENESIS GETS ESTABLISHED. THIS
SECONDARY AREA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER STORM
WARNING ALL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OVERALL, THINKING HASN'T CHANGED MUCH REGARDING TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES EXPECTED, WITH SOUTHEAST
KANSAS STILL HAVING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 8-10+ INCHES. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY NARROW NATURE OF THESE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS OF SNOW
(SOMETIMES NO MORE THAN 20-40 MILES WIDE), THERE WILL BE SOME
WIDE SWINGS IN STORM-TOTAL ACCUMULATION FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION,
WHICH THE MODELS HAVE A VERY DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING.
WHO HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO "BUST" AND RECEIVE AMOUNTS LESS
THAN 3-4 INCHES? GIVEN WHERE THESE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS ARE
CURRENTLY AND EXPECTED TO SET UP, LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF
I-70 MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM ROUGHLY WICHITA ON WEST-SOUTHWEST-SOUTH. THIS IS
AT LEAST PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND 3KM
NAM.
REGARDLESS, THE SNOW COMBINED WITH STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SUPPORT BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES AREAWIDE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED, ESPECIALLY
OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF KS.
DANGEROUS COLD THROUGH LATE WEEK...
PER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS, BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK, AS UNUSUALLY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND A TAD COLDER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ARE LIKELY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS BELOW ZERO. RECORD COLD HIGHS SHOULD BE SHATTERED FOR MOST
SITES TODAY, WITH RECORD LOWS AND COLD HIGHS LIKELY BREAKING
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL. A FEW RECORD LOWS MAY EVEN BE IN
JEOPARDY AS LATE AS FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SUPPORT DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS AROUND 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT TIMES,
COLDEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL CONSENSUS AND ASSOCIATED
HIGH CONFIDENCE, WILL CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE COLD WARNING ALL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
WARMING TREND WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND
STARTING THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY-MONDAY. CONSENSUS FAVORS 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
MONDAY-TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THESE READINGS WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED SOME
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
SNOW WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND
IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO
25 OR 30 KNOTS AT TIMES TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ALTHOUGH KRSL AND KGBD MAY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD 00Z WED.
REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
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