018
FXUS63 KICT 190438
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1038 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER STORM ENDS TONIGHT, GRADUALLY EXITING TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODERATE TO HIGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
LIKELY, ALONG WITH STOUT/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CREATING
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
- BITTER COLD TO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY; WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
-15 AND -30 POSSIBLE.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS; 60S BY
NEXT WEEK INCREASINGLY LIKELY!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A BROAD, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WAS
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND IS LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA. AROUND 2-7 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS, AND AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AS BROAD
SYNOPTIC LIFT SHIFTS EASTWARD. AS THE SNOW IS EXITING, BANDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH UP TO 1-INCH/HR
SNOWFALL RATES AND UNDER 1/2-MILE VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. WHILE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEY SHOULD REMAIN BREEZY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY AFTER SNOW EXITS EASTWARD WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD
AIR MASS THAT IS FORECAST TO SET IN AND LINGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WIND CHILLS TODAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN BETWEEN -25 AND -15 FOR
MUCH OF TODAY, AND THESE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A BRIEF REPRIEVE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, RECORD
COLD HIGHS AND RECORD LOWS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY MORNING HAVING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES;
GENERALLY RANGING FROM -15 TO -5 ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
GENERALLY AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE! WITH ADDITIONAL
REINFORCING ROUNDS OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY WILL NOT
SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A WARM UP THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MEAN 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH WOULD PROMOTE
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES, PERHAPS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH FORECAST LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING AROUND -10 AND
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 65, THIS WOULD BE
APPROXIMATELY A 75-DEGREE TEMPERATURE SWING IN JUST A HANDFUL OF
DAYS!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BESIDES CNU, WHERE
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY UNTIL 08Z. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KNOTS LATE IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
RECORD DAILY LOWS LIKELY WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY MORNINGS...
WEDNESDAY 2/19:
WICHITA... FORECAST LOW: -3 RECORD LOW: 2 IN 1975
SALINA... FORECAST LOW: -4 RECORD LOW: -3 IN 1978
CHANUTE... FORECAST LOW: -3 RECORD LOW: -1 IN 1903
RUSSELL... FORECAST LOW: -7 RECORD LOW: 3 IN 1978
THURSDAY 2/20:
WICHITA... FORECAST LOW: -9 RECORD LOW: 3 IN 1918
SALINA... FORECAST LOW: -14 RECORD LOW: 0 IN 1918
CHANUTE... FORECAST LOW: -9 RECORD LOW: 4 IN 1918
RUSSELL... FORECAST LOW: -12 RECORD LOW: 6 IN 1955
RECORD DAILY COLD HIGHS LIKELY WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WEDNESDAY 2/19:
WICHITA... FORECAST HIGH: 9 RECORD COLD HIGH: 20 IN 1889
SALINA... FORECAST HIGH: 9 RECORD COLD HIGH: 17 IN 1929
CHANUTE... FORECAST HIGH: 11 RECORD COLD HIGH: 22 IN 2006
RUSSELL... FORECAST HIGH: 6 RECORD COLD HIGH: 16 IN 1955
THURSDAY 2/20:
WICHITA... FORECAST HIGH: 14 RECORD COLD HIGH: 15 IN 1918
SALINA... FORECAST HIGH: 13 RECORD COLD HIGH: 13 IN 1918
CHANUTE... FORECAST HIGH: 17 RECORD COLD HIGH: 21 IN 1918
RUSSELL... FORECAST HIGH: 12 RECORD COLD HIGH: 21 IN 1966
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...GC/MWM
CLIMATE...JC
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