801
FXUS63 KICT 192335
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
535 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FLURRIES TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WITH NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILLS THURSDAY MORNING WILL REACH AS LOW AS 15
TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. FRIDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL
REACH AS LOW AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- LOW (15%) CHANCES FOR A FEW FLURRIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS ON
FRIDAY, THEN QUIET AND MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES AN UPPER WAVE TRACKING
EASTWARD OVER THE CONUS WHILE A DIGGING JET STREAK DIVES SOUTHEAST
OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH RESIDES OVER
THE DAKOTAS AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVER MIDDLE AMERICA.
THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY...
THE BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL HANG AROUND THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND MAINTAIN THURSDAY HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS ALONG WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO. DESPITE
LIGHT WINDS, STILL THINKING WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -20 ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
"WARM" TO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S BY FRIDAY DESPITE SNOW ON THE GROUND
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP AS
LOW AS 10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO, WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST VALUES THE
AREA SEES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO RACE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PROVIDE A QUICK WINDOW FOR CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW (~15%) FOR SNOW TO
EVEN REACH THE GROUND GIVEN RELATIVELY-DRY AIR AT LOWER LEVELS,
BUT MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY THRU NEXT WEEK...
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. CONSEQUENTLY,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US DRY AND WESTERLY (DOWNSLOPE) FLOW AT
THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (50S AND
60S) BY SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT EXACT VALUES OF THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT
UNCERTAIN CONSIDERING EXISTING SNOW COVER THROUGHOUT THE AREA. ALL
TOLD, HOWEVER, THE BIG PICTURE SUGGESTS WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERALL
AS WE SHAKE OFF THIS LATEST ARCTIC SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
AT 10-15 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 02Z AT ALL
SITES.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...BRF
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