554
FXUS63 KICT 200902
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
302 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 25 BELOW THIS MORNING, WITH
WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- MILD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT--FRIDAY
AM...
DESPITE LIGHT WINDS, EARLY THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES DIPPING AS LOW
AS 9 TO 14 BELOW WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS 20 TO 25 BELOW
ZERO AREAWIDE. CONSEQUENTLY, WILL CONTINUE THE EXTREME COLD WARNING
THROUGH NOON TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE A TAD EAST
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A MORE MIXY BOUNDARY LAYER. ADDITIONALLY, MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE, ALL OF WHICH WILL
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WIND CHILLS COULD
STILL DRIP DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, COLDEST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE VALUES ARE FLIRTING WITH
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WILL PUNT DECISION TO DAY SHIFT
SINCE IT'S MARGINAL.
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FRIDAY...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MAY SUPPORT PATCHY
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVING WEST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF ROUGHLY HIGHWAY 50. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY WON'T SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS GIVEN DRY LOW-LEVELS, A DUSTING
OF ACCUMULATION CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
WARMING TREND WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A WARMING TREND
STARTING THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS INCREASE OVER MID-
AMERICA, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY.
CONSENSUS FAVORS 50S-60S FOR DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY-
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THESE READINGS WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED SOME GIVEN
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE
MOST PART. TOWARDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BELOW IS
A LIST OF DAILY RECORDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR WICHITA,
SALINA, CHANUTE, AND RUSSELL.
RECORD LOWS TODAY:
WICHITA... FORECAST LOW: -8 RECORD LOW: 3 IN 1918
SALINA... FORECAST LOW: -12 RECORD LOW: 0 IN 1918
CHANUTE... FORECAST LOW: -8 RECORD LOW: 4 IN 1918
RUSSELL... FORECAST LOW: -11 RECORD LOW: 6 IN 1955
RECORD COLD HIGHS TODAY:
WICHITA... FORECAST HIGH: 13 RECORD COLD HIGH: 15 IN 1918
SALINA... FORECAST HIGH: 12 RECORD COLD HIGH: 13 IN 1918
CHANUTE... FORECAST HIGH: 15 RECORD COLD HIGH: 21 IN 1918
RUSSELL... FORECAST HIGH: 11 RECORD COLD HIGH: 21 IN 1966
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
CLIMATE...ADK/JC
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