068
FXUS63 KICT 210428
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1028 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COLDEST WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FRIDAY, THOUGH LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- MILD TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SURFACE HIGH PRESIDES OVER EASTERN KANSAS AS
THE FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS HANGS AROUND THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY.
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN CENTRAL KANSAS (AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO), BUT DECIDED AGAINST
ISSUING FOR NOW GIVEN CLOUD COVER THAT IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO KEEP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING AS MUCH AS PAST NIGHTS.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND GRADUALLY
ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY "WARMER" HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
BRIEFLY SUPPORT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS AREAS
ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US-50 FOR THE BEST CHANCES, THOUGH A FAIR
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FEATURE REMAINS GIVEN DRY LOW LEVELS AND
FAIR SPATIAL SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS. REGARDLESS, LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG WARMING TREND
STARTING SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY (LOW
40S TO NEAR 50), THEN ABOVE-NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE
SUPPORTED BY MONDAY. HIGHS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY BE
TRENDED DOWN FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ASSUMING THAT SNOW
COVER KEEPS TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE BIG
PICTURE REMAINS THAT A NOTICEABLE WARMUP IS IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND 15Z AT RSL,GBD,
AND HUT BETWEEN 10-15 KTS. SIMILARLY, THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
AT ICT AROUND 19Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TODAY. BELOW IS
A LIST OF DAILY RECORDS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR WICHITA,
SALINA, CHANUTE, AND RUSSELL.
RECORD LOWS TODAY:
WICHITA... FORECAST LOW: -8 RECORD LOW: 3 IN 1918
SALINA... FORECAST LOW: -12 RECORD LOW: 0 IN 1918
CHANUTE... FORECAST LOW: -8 RECORD LOW: 4 IN 1918
RUSSELL... FORECAST LOW: -11 RECORD LOW: 6 IN 1955
RECORD COLD HIGHS TODAY:
WICHITA... FORECAST HIGH: 13 RECORD COLD HIGH: 15 IN 1918
SALINA... FORECAST HIGH: 12 RECORD COLD HIGH: 13 IN 1918
CHANUTE... FORECAST HIGH: 15 RECORD COLD HIGH: 21 IN 1918
RUSSELL... FORECAST HIGH: 11 RECORD COLD HIGH: 21 IN 1966
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...GC/JC
CLIMATE...ADK/JC
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