988
FGUS73 KICT 131900
ESFICT
KSC001-009-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-105-113-115-
125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-152100-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
200 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
..SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 3
THIS OUTLOOK APPLIES TO THE WICHITA HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA)
WHICH INCLUDES THE ARKANSAS RIVER...SMOKY HILL RIVER...VERDIGRIS
RIVER AND NEOSHO RIVER AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
...THE CHANCES FOR RIVER FLOODING OVER CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS HAVE A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING THIS SPRING....
OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE
ADVANCED NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL
MOISTURE, SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK
IS ISSUED. THE VAST MAJORITY OF FLOOD EVENTS IN THE WICHITA SERVICE
AREA RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION OR
LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION.
THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 13TH THROUGH MARCH 26TH, 2025.
THE OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
HEAVY RAINFALL AT ANY TIME CAN LEAD TO FLOODING EVEN WHEN THE
SNOWMELT FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW. CONVECTION, NOT SNOWMELT, IS OFTEN
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF SPRING FLOODING IN THE SERVICE AREA.
RECENT CONDITIONS:
THE PAST TWO WEEKS WERE A CONTINUATION OF OUR WARM STRETCH OF
WEATHER, WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 6-9 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE HSA. PRECIPITATION ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS BEEN A MIXED BAG ACROSS
THE STATE THANKS TO THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EARLY PART OF THE MONTH.
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS CENTRAL KANSAS HAS SEEN BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION WHILE EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS HAS
SEEN UP TO 200% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH.
SOILS ARE CURRENTLY UNFROZEN ACROSS THE HSA THANKS TO THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS THE HSA REMAINS IN THE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORY. NASA SPORT LIS DATA INDICATES SOIL MOISTURES ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 70TH PERCENTILE OVER MUCH OF KANSAS.
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED THE 13TH OF MARCH 2025, SHOWS
A LARGE SWATH OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HSA. MODERATE
DROUGHT (D1) IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS. (HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU)
THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOW MAP
SHOWS STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS BEING BELOW
TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. FORTUNATELY, DUE TO THE MORE RECENT RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS, MOST OF THESE GAUGES ARE NOW SHOWING NORMAL
FLOW CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
(HTTP://WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV)
THE U.S. CORPS OF ENGINEERS DATA INDICATE RESERVOIR STORAGE IS NEAR
NORMAL EXCEPT FOR CHENEY LAKE WHICH CONTINUES TO RUN BELOW NORMAL.
RESERVOIRS CURRENTLY HAVE NEAR 100 PERCENT OF THEIR FLOOD-CONTROL
STORAGE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS.
FUTURE CONDITIONS:
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE HSA.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD
MARCH 20TH THROUGH 26TH SHOWS A SLIGHT FAVORING OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF KANSAS WHILE SLIGHTLY
FAVORING NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE.
THE CPC 3 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR MARCH-APRIL-MAY SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS KANSAS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH EQUAL CHANCES
OF ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS.
THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH THE END OF MAY 2025,
INDICATES NO MAJOR CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
(HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV)
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 03/11/2025 - 06/09/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:ARKANSAS RIVER
GREAT BEND 12.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HUTCHINSON 8.0 13.0 19.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
HAVEN 10.0 11.0 12.0 : 8 10 6 7 <5 5
DERBY 12.0 15.0 16.2 : 13 12 <5 <5 <5 <5
MULVANE 16.5 19.0 21.0 : 13 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
OXFORD 17.0 20.0 23.0 : 21 16 9 7 <5 <5
ARKANSAS CITY 11.0 17.0 21.0 : 34 31 7 5 <5 <5
:WALNUT CREEK
ALBERT 24.0 25.0 25.7 : 6 <5 5 <5 <5 <5
:COW CREEK
LYONS 18.0 22.0 24.7 : 5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
HUTCHINSON 9.5 10.5 12.5 : 45 21 27 6 <5 <5
:LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER
ALTA MILLS 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 16 19 9 12 <5 <5
HALSTEAD 25.0 27.0 29.0 : 13 13 <5 8 <5 <5
SEDGWICK 22.0 25.0 26.0 : 12 13 7 6 5 <5
:COWSKIN CREEK
WICHITA AT 119TH 18.0 22.0 24.0 : 14 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
:NINNESCAH SOUTH FORK
MURDOCK 8.0 10.0 12.0 : 22 10 5 <5 <5 <5
:NINNESCAH RIVER
PECK 17.0 21.0 26.0 : 10 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
BELLE PLAINE 23.0 24.5 26.0 : 8 7 5 <5 <5 <5
:SLATE CREEK
WELLINGTON 19.0 22.0 23.5 : 48 39 25 16 6 <5
:WHITEWATER RIVER
TOWANDA 22.0 25.0 28.0 : 18 15 11 10 <5 <5
AUGUSTA 21.0 25.0 30.0 : 9 9 7 6 <5 <5
:WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER
EL DORADO 21.0 22.0 24.0 : 19 14 18 12 15 9
:WALNUT RIVER
EL DORADO 19.0 23.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
AUGUSTA 23.0 28.0 36.0 : 11 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
WINFIELD 18.0 22.0 29.0 : 24 24 15 18 5 6
ARKANSAS CITY 18.0 22.0 28.0 : 9 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CHIKASKIA RIVER
CORBIN 10.0 19.0 28.0 : 33 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:FALL RIVER
FREDONIA 17.0 27.0 36.0 : 38 37 10 10 <5 <5
:VERDIGRIS RIVER
ALTOONA 19.0 21.0 26.0 : 23 25 6 6 <5 <5
INDEPENDENCE 30.0 47.6 53.0 : 28 36 <5 <5 <5 <5
COFFEYVILLE 18.0 23.0 26.5 : 22 26 5 6 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
FLORENCE 22.0 27.0 32.0 : 30 26 6 <5 <5 <5
COTTONWOOD FALLS 9.0 11.0 18.0 : 35 32 22 21 <5 <5
PLYMOUTH 32.0 34.0 37.0 : 28 28 13 10 <5 <5
:NEOSHO RIVER
IOLA 15.0 21.0 27.0 : 40 36 <5 8 <5 <5
CHANUTE 23.0 28.5 35.0 : 38 51 16 22 <5 5
ERIE 29.0 32.0 36.0 : 36 45 23 31 13 16
PARSONS 21.0 23.0 32.0 : 59 59 42 51 <5 <5
OSWEGO 17.0 20.0 25.0 : 54 55 34 38 7 9
:SALT CREEK
BARNARD 21.0 23.3 24.9 : 9 24 7 18 <5 <5
:SALINE RIVER
LINCOLN 30.0 36.0 38.5 : 13 22 <5 9 <5 <5
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
LINDSBORG 21.0 29.0 33.9 : 21 38 8 7 <5 <5
MENTOR 20.0 24.0 28.0 : 15 36 11 17 <5 <5
:MULBERRY CREEK
SALINA 24.0 26.0 27.4 : 29 39 20 36 5 6
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
NEW CAMBRIA 27.0 30.0 33.1 : 24 37 18 29 6 9
RUSSELL 18.0 20.0 38.0 : <5 9 <5 5 <5 <5
ELLSWORTH 20.0 24.0 27.0 : 5 9 <5 6 <5 <5
:SALINE RIVER
RUSSELL 18.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 03/11/2025 - 06/09/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:ARKANSAS RIVER
GREAT BEND 1.0 1.0 1.6 4.0 5.7 7.8 8.7
HUTCHINSON 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.9 4.0 4.9 7.6
HAVEN 2.0 3.1 3.8 5.1 6.5 9.1 11.7
DERBY 1.9 2.7 3.9 5.6 8.0 13.0 13.8
MULVANE 6.4 7.3 8.6 10.1 12.8 17.6 18.4
OXFORD 8.2 9.6 10.9 12.9 16.0 20.0 20.9
ARKANSAS CITY 4.1 5.5 7.3 9.4 12.0 15.6 18.1
:WALNUT CREEK
ALBERT 4.1 4.1 6.3 10.9 16.3 21.4 25.1
:COW CREEK
LYONS 3.9 3.9 7.2 11.5 14.2 17.5 18.1
HUTCHINSON 2.3 3.1 6.1 9.2 10.6 11.2 11.8
:LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER
ALTA MILLS 0.5 4.3 7.3 13.0 17.9 25.0 26.1
HALSTEAD 6.6 8.5 10.9 15.7 20.4 26.4 27.0
SEDGWICK 4.6 6.0 7.9 11.9 15.6 23.6 26.2
:COWSKIN CREEK
WICHITA AT 119TH 7.1 7.6 10.9 13.6 15.7 18.9 19.5
:NINNESCAH SOUTH FORK
MURDOCK 3.6 4.3 5.0 5.8 7.8 9.2 10.2
:NINNESCAH RIVER
PECK 3.1 4.5 6.7 8.8 13.0 17.2 19.1
BELLE PLAINE 9.9 11.0 13.0 14.8 18.7 22.6 24.6
:SLATE CREEK
WELLINGTON 3.9 4.7 7.5 18.8 22.1 23.0 23.7
:WHITEWATER RIVER
TOWANDA 3.7 5.5 8.3 11.6 19.5 25.6 27.7
AUGUSTA 5.8 6.4 7.7 9.1 13.1 20.6 28.5
:WEST BRANCH WALNUT RIVER
EL DORADO 6.7 7.8 8.2 11.3 16.2 28.7 43.5
:WALNUT RIVER
EL DORADO 2.5 3.4 3.8 7.7 11.5 14.6 17.4
AUGUSTA 6.6 7.1 8.1 13.0 18.6 23.6 25.6
WINFIELD 2.7 4.0 5.8 10.2 17.7 24.6 29.8
ARKANSAS CITY 3.8 6.8 8.4 10.2 14.0 17.9 19.6
:CHIKASKIA RIVER
CORBIN 2.3 2.8 5.9 8.1 11.0 13.6 15.0
:FALL RIVER
FREDONIA 5.7 6.6 10.1 15.1 19.2 27.3 29.7
:VERDIGRIS RIVER
ALTOONA 6.8 8.3 11.3 15.1 18.8 20.4 21.3
INDEPENDENCE 9.1 10.4 16.3 22.1 31.1 35.6 39.4
COFFEYVILLE 3.3 3.7 5.3 10.5 17.6 20.2 23.6
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
FLORENCE 3.7 4.4 6.7 15.1 24.0 26.6 27.2
COTTONWOOD FALLS 1.9 2.5 3.8 7.0 10.4 13.9 14.4
PLYMOUTH 6.2 8.0 13.8 25.1 33.1 34.2 34.9
:NEOSHO RIVER
IOLA 9.5 9.6 10.2 13.8 16.8 18.5 19.5
CHANUTE 11.3 12.6 16.4 20.5 26.1 30.5 34.7
ERIE 15.4 17.0 22.0 26.0 31.5 37.1 41.6
PARSONS 12.0 14.1 19.1 22.2 24.9 27.4 29.0
OSWEGO 9.5 10.3 12.8 17.9 21.3 24.3 26.0
:SALT CREEK
BARNARD 4.1 4.1 4.5 7.9 11.1 20.0 24.1
:SALINE RIVER
LINCOLN 10.7 10.7 11.5 14.3 24.6 30.5 34.9
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
LINDSBORG 6.4 6.4 7.0 8.5 18.1 27.7 30.2
MENTOR 3.8 3.8 4.4 5.9 16.9 26.1 27.5
:MULBERRY CREEK
SALINA 2.1 2.1 4.6 8.8 24.9 26.4 27.3
:SMOKY HILL RIVER
NEW CAMBRIA 7.9 9.3 14.1 21.1 25.8 32.2 33.9
RUSSELL 3.3 3.4 4.2 6.8 10.1 12.4 15.7
ELLSWORTH 1.3 1.4 3.5 6.4 9.7 16.0 21.4
:SALINE RIVER
RUSSELL 3.5 3.8 4.8 6.8 8.8 15.9 17.7
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION
SERVICE.
BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION, THERE IS A NEAR NORMAL CHANCE OF
FLOODING ACROSS MOST OF THE HSA THIS SPRING. A SUBSTANTIAL PART OF
THIS ASSESSMENT IS FACTORING IN THE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND THE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS. ANY FLOODING THAT
DOES OCCUR THIS SPRING WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
FOR THE YEAR.
IWASKO
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