473
FXUS63 KICT 240329
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1029 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- VERY HIGH GRASS FIRE DANGER MONDAY AND AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR OFF-AND-ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
THE COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT THROUGH KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT EVENTUALLY SWINGING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING OUT OF THE WEST AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH.
THESE STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TUESDAY AND
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REALLY INCREASES THEREAFTER AS
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS LOW AS TIMING
AND STRENGTH QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES AND THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. SO WHILE TIMING REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND PEAK THIS WEEKEND. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE MORE
IN CONSENSUS WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT AGAIN THE SPEED OF
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT UNTIL WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS
WE MOVE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. |
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
WARMER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.
MORE WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LIMIT OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...WI
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