164
FXUS63 KICT 241716
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY.
- VERY HIGH GRASSFIRE DANGER CONCERNS TODAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY:
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S, AS WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED THICKNESS INCREASES. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST, WITH GRADUALLY DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IN
ITS WAKE HELPING INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY
THAT FORECAST HIGHS WILL RISE THROUGH THE 70S THIS WEEK, WITH
POSSIBLY 80S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MEDIUM
RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
BY SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY INTO THE 40S-50S AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS, BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS.
OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
WHILE THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING FINER
SYNOPTIC DETAILS, THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
INCREASING OFF-AND-ON SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A PAIR OF WESTERN CONUS
UPPER TROUGHS TRAVERSES INTO MID-AMERICA, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY INCREASES ACROSS THE HEARTLAND.
RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO REMAIN POOR,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED HIGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING TIMING,
MAGNITUDE, AND EXTENT OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. OVERALL THOUGH, THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY LOW POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL RAINFALL, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE
COMING DAYS/NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BKN-SCT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
30MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS, MILD TEMPERATURES, AND LOW HUMIDITY
WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TODAY ACROSS
CENTRAL, SOUTH- CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. NOT EXPECTING
CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE DANGER TODAY.
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, INCREASING STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A RETURN TO WIDESPREAD
VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER, ALTHOUGH INCREASING
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL AND MARGINAL HUMIDITY KEEPS THE LATE WEEK
FIRE DANGER MORE UNCERTAIN.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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