873
FXUS63 KICT 241946
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
246 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
- ON AND OFF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SIT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEAVING MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A
GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY, THE RELATIVELY LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE CONCERNS. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY,
A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MODERATE OUR WARMING TREND, SENDING
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DAY.
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 200% OF AVERAGE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ON AND OFF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK
PRETTY ISOLATED THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
BIG TROUGH THIS WEEKEND, RAIN AND SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE'RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, SO THE EXACT
TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED TO FURTHER
UPDATES REGARDING RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BKN-SCT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL FLIP WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND
30MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER,
ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES MAY LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...AMD
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