161   
FXUS63 KICT 242341  
AFDICT  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS  
641 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED TODAY  
  
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY  
  
- ON AND OFF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE  
  WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025  
  
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SIT   
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT   
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LEAVING MUCH OF THE PLAINS IN   
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A   
GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY.   
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY.   
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE   
AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE   
DANGER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE WARM AND DRY   
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY, THE RELATIVELY LIGHT   
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PRECLUDE FIRE CONCERNS. THEN FOR WEDNESDAY,   
A WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL BRING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT   
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MODERATE OUR WARMING TREND, SENDING   
AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE DAY.   
  
AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE   
REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ONCE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE   
WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH   
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THURSDAY   
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON   
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 200% OF AVERAGE.   
THIS WILL LEAD TO ON AND OFF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH   
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK   
PRETTY ISOLATED THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT   
BIG TROUGH THIS WEEKEND, RAIN AND SEVERE CHANCES INCREASE FOR   
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE'RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, SO THE EXACT   
TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED TO FURTHER   
UPDATES REGARDING RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025  
  
VFR WITH SOME CIRRUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A  
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHILE  
DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS  
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ON TUESDAY.  
  
  
   
FIRE WEATHER  
  
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025  
  
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY   
EVENING HOURS AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND   
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK   
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.  
  
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTHWEST   
WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER,   
ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CORRESPONDING RAIN AND STORM   
CHANCES MAY LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS.  
  
  
   
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
DISCUSSION...AMD  
AVIATION...MWM  
FIRE WEATHER...AMD  
 
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