507
FXUS63 KICT 251619
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1119 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A BIG COOL DOWN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY.
- SLIGHT TO MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY-SUNDAY.
- VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
TEMPERATURES:
INCREASING THICKNESS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY
PROGRESSING OVER MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY, WITH LOW-
MID 80S LIKELY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD AS WELL,
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRASTIC COOL DOWN, AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT SLICES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW ONLY COOLED HIGHS
INTO THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S-40S, ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS HIGHS AS COLD AS THE 30S-40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S-
30S SUNDAY-MONDAY ALONG WITH STOUT/GUSTY NORTH WINDS. STAY TUNED.
PRECIPITATION:
STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER GENERALLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF KANSAS, AS DEEP WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES. LIFT DOESN'T
LOOK OVERLY STRONG, AND THE BUOYANCY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS RATHER
MEAGER, SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY, WITH ACTIVITY
LIKELY REMAINING SUB-SEVERE.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY-SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION, AS
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE/STRONG COLD FRONT
COMBO TRAVERSE THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A MODEST
TO STRONG COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WHICH INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS PERIOD GIVEN CONTINUED
POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST
DETAILS.
TAKING A LOOK AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING PERIODIC
RAIN/STORM CHANCES FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS THIS FAR OUT, STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE TODAY
AND WILL BE VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART. THEY WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST/EAST BY WED MORNING. MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
SOUTH WINDS WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER.
HOWEVER, HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY ALONG WITH SLIGHT TO MODEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS MAY TEND TO LIMIT CRITICAL/RED FLAG
FIRE CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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