548
FXUS63 KICT 251957
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL AS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DECENT MOISTURE HAS ALREADY STARTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA AND, COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK LIFT, HAS LEAD TO
SOME SHOWERS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH WITH PWATS REACHING IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH MARGINAL LIFT AND INSTABILITY,
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. WITH THIS EXPANSIVE RIDGE IN PLACE, WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING EVEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY AS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND
THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WEST.
AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, A POTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRY LINE WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
STATE FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL AND
INSTABILITY DECENT, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN CAPPED. ONCE
AGAIN, A FEW SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER SEEMS
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HINDERED ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, INSTEAD IT LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THEIR
ABOVE NORMAL TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
HOWEVER, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. A FEW LINGERING
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO CLOSE TO 70 MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE
REGION, BUT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S INTO THE LOWER
60S. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER THAN WHAT
WE'RE EXPERIENCING THIS WEEK, THEY ARE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE REGION WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE TODAY
AND WILL BE VARIABLE FOR THE MOST PART. THEY WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST/EAST BY WED MORNING. MID CLOUDS AND A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN KS BUT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHER
RH VALUES AND SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES MAY LIMIT RED FLAG CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...AMD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page