089
FXUS63 KICT 260758
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY-SUNDAY, AND
AGAIN BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A BIG COOL DOWN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TODAY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS, AND
THURSDAY-FRIDAY AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
TEMPERATURES:
INCREASING THICKNESS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY
PROGRESSING OVER MID-AMERICA WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WARMEST DAY WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY, WITH 80S
LIKELY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD AS WELL, WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DRASTIC COOL DOWN, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SLICES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHS
IN THE 40S-50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AS COOL AS THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S, COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL, SUPPORTING EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS.
PER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS, INCREASING THICKNESS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION:
INCREASING 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING OVER GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS. LIFT DOESN'T LOOK
OVERLY STRONG, AND THE BUOYANCY/SHEAR COMBINATION IS RATHER MEAGER,
SO ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-SUNDAY MORNING
OVER MAINLY EASTERN KANSAS, AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED DRYLINE/STRONG COLD FRONT COMBO TRAVERSE THE REGION.
DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A MODEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR, WHICH INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND POINTS
EASTWARD. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY WITH THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM,
WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SATURDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF
THE GFS MODEL SUITE VERIFIES. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE
FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
TAKING A LOOK AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
PERIODIC RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS MID-AMERICA FROM TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT, STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BECOMING BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LOW CIGS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
LOWER-END ELEVATED GRASSFIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER MAINLY
CENTRAL KANSAS. INCREASING VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREAWIDE, DUE TO STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY AND HIT-OR-MISS SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD PRECLUDE CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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