102
FXUS63 KICT 262357
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT-THURSDAY AM
- OFF-AND-ON SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
AS OF 345 PM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
DISPLAYS ONGOING RIDGING OVER THE REGION THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE
TRAVERSES EAST. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700-850 MB APPEARS TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MUCAPE IS GENERALLY BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO 25 KTS WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. PWATS WILL BE EXCEEDING 1 INCH
GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. SCATTERED STORMS WILL LIKELY CEASE AFTER MID
MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS TO THE WEST DECREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SINK INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS. DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH UP TO 700 MB WILL YIELD WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN
JEOPARDY AT RUSSELL, SALINA, WICHITA, AND CHANUTE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR RECORD DETAILS. FURTHERMORE, WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE JUST ENOUGH ASCENT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS.
MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO 25 KT SHOULD
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS LOW. THAT BEING SAID, THE
WELL- MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V PROFILES
AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ANY
CONVECTIVE WILL CEASE WITH SUNSET AS NOCTURNAL COOLING ENSUES.
TRANSITIONING INTO FRIDAY, MIDLEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST OF AREA
AS A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS. A DEEPENING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, SHUNTING THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KS BY EARLY SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS'
WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, FURTHER
ADVANCING THE FRONT EASTWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TWO ZONES
OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE FIRST IS
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA. THE SECOND IS
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM EASTERN CO INTO NORTHERN KS.
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
KS. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE
THROUGH THE 30S AND EVEN 20S ACROSS CENTRAL KS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE IS INCREASING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. OTHERWISE,
QUIET WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGING
REMAINING IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW
WILL RETURN TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
CHALLENGES
1) LLWS TONIGHT INTO THU AM
2) PROB30 CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THU AM IN S KS
3) INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THU
AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED TO START BETWEEN
6-9Z FOR ALL BUT CNU WITH POTENTIAL SPEEDS OF 40-45KTS AT 2K
FEET WHICH WILL LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR CNU, HUT AND ICT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS; THE PROB30S WERE KEPT FOR THESE SITES WITH SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TIMING BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. IF A
STORM WERE TO IMPACT A SITE, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THAT COULD IMPACT RSL AND
GBD IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONFIDENCE ISN'T
HIGH ENOUGH IN OCCURRENCE/COVERAGE WITH THIS ISSUANCE TO INSERT
ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME, BUT IT WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR UPCOMING
ISSUANCES.
WHILE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PREVIOUS MVFR CEILINGS WITH VARIABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE. GLANCING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAYBE LOW VFR OPPOSED TO MVFR. IT WAS DECIDED TO
KEEP VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW AND ADJUST WITH THE NEXT ISSUANCE IF
NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30KTS STARTING AROUND 15Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THURSDAY MORNING WILL DISSIPATE WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH EXPECTED. A VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
IS ANTICIPATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WILL
CREATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY ALLOW FOR VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE OVERLAP OF
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
RECORD HIGH INFORMATION FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 27TH:
SITE: RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST HIGH
WICHITA 90 (1895) 86
SALINA 88 (1910) 89
CHANUTE 86 (1910) 87
RUSSELL 80 (2019) 91
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF/GC
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...BRF/GC
CLIMATE...BRF/GC
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