244
FXUS63 KICT 271756
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, AND AGAIN BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
- HIGH PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A BIG COOL DOWN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
TEMPERATURES:
A RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY, DUE TO INCREASING THICKNESS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THINKING WIDESPREAD 80S IS
LIKELY, WITH READINGS NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS WHERE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS GREATEST AND DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT
LOWER. FRIDAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER, AS THICKNESS AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT DECREASE SOME, AND LOW CLOUDS INCREASE OVER
MAINLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S-80S, ALTHOUGH A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD EVENING.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A DRASTIC COOL DOWN, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLICES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S-50S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 20S AND
30S, COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE
LIKELY AS WELL, SUPPORTING EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS.
PER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS, INCREASING THICKNESS AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION:
FOR THIS MORNING...INCREASING 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE HINTS OF THIS PER REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE. LIFT IS NOT VERY STRONG, AND THE BUOYANCY/SHEAR
COMBINATION IS RATHER MEAGER, SO ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE,
ALTHOUGH COULD SEE BRIEF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS VERY SMALL
(RICE SIZE) HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...A WEAK ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AMIDST WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
GREAT BEND TO SALINA. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
MAY ALSO SUPPORT THESE CHANCES. HEFTY DCAPE VALUES FOR LATE MARCH
STANDARDS MAY SUPPORT 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY, WITH PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE TALLEST CORES.
FOR SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY SUNDAY...APPROACHING DEEP
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN TANDEM WITH A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT COMBO SLICING
EAST THROUGH MID-AMERICA MAY SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
COMBO AND ASSOCIATED STORM CHANCES. A MODEST MODEST COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AMIDST THE STRONG FORCING INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM, WRAP-AROUND DEFORMATION
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD EVEN BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70.
STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING
DAYS.
TAKING A LOOK AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY SUPPORTING
PERIODIC RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS MID-AMERICA FROM TUESDAY AND
BEYOND. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THIS FAR OUT, STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT CNU THROUGH MOST
OF THIS TAF PERIOD. VICINITY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AT CNU THROUGH 20Z. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 02Z AT RSL, SLN, AND GBD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH SPEEDS UP TO 30 KTS OVERNIGHT, WHICH
MIGHT MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD FOR ICT AND CNU
AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. COULD BE LOOKING AT LOWER-END
CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE DANGER OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY, BUT
THINKING IT'S MARGINAL ENOUGH TO NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
RECORD HIGH INFORMATION FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 27TH:
SITE: RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST HIGH
WICHITA 90 (1895) 86
SALINA 88 (1910) 88
CHANUTE 86 (1910) 84
RUSSELL 80 (2019) 90
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF/GC
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
CLIMATE...BRF/GC
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