224
FXUS63 KICT 191828
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
128 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AREAWIDE. POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE. LOW-END
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.
- AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY SUNDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY TURNING A BIT COOLER AGAIN BY
FRIDAY.
- PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
TONIGHT--SUNDAY...EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO
GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, AS A DEEP/POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AMIDST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS, POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY, WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WIDESPREAD MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY AREAWIDE (THIS IS IN ADDITION TO WHAT'S ALREADY
OCCURRED). HREF PROBABILITIES SUPPORT CENTRAL KANSAS LIKELY SEEING
AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.00+ INCHES, WITH LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTHEAST
SEEING AN ADDITIONAL 0.75-2.00+ INCHES, HIGHEST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, THE STRONG FORCING COUPLED WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM ROUGHLY THE FLINT
HILLS ON EAST SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. THINKING
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, 50-60 MPH WINDS, AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS MISSOURI.
LATE TUESDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ACTIVE PERIOD THUNDERSTORM-WISE, AS A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTAL ZONES OOZE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING-
NIGHT, AND AGAIN SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
PER MODEL CLIMATOLOGIES, FORECAST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO
BE SEASONABLY HIGH, ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO
BE ONLY SO-SO. THEREFORE, LOCALIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR POSSIBLE, BUT ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AT CNU AND ICT. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD,
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, LIKELY AFTER 07Z.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT CNU. CEILINGS WILL ALSO STEADILY LOWER TO
MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING EVENTUALLY BECOMING IFR CEILINGS AREA
WIDE BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL SITES THEN START SHIFTING
NORTHERLY EXCEPT AT CNU, WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR KSZ072-093>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...GC
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