381
FXUS63 KICT 201817
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
117 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POTENTIAL THROUGH 6PM THIS
EVENING.
- WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY TURNING A BIT COOLER
AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
- PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING:
CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION, AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.05-0.20", LOCALLY
HIGHER. WE'RE EXPECTING THIS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO GRADUALLY END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS AREN'T EXPECTED, POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FALLING OVER SATURATED SOILS MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE 2-4" RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM THE PAST 2
DAYS.
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...IN THE SHORT-TERM
(THROUGH 2-3PM), THIS THREAT REMAINS CONFINED TO LABETTE-NEOSHO
COUNTIES, CLOSEST TO THE NEAR-SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES PREVALENT JUST TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SMALL HAIL, 50-60
MPH WINDS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FAST-MOVING BROKEN SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
WE'LL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
FURTHER WEST (COWLEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-ELK-CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES) FROM
ABOUT 2-6PM CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THREAT. LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MODESTLY LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
50-60 MPH WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO, EITHER FROM LANDSPOUT PROCESSES IN VICINITY OF THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL ZONE, OR WEAK SUPERCELL PROCESSES. WE'LL BE
MONITORING RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
LATE TUESDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ACTIVE
PERIOD THUNDERSTORM-WISE, AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL ZONES OOZE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT, AND AGAIN SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PER MODEL CLIMATOLOGIES,
FORECAST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE SEASONABLY HIGH,
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ONLY SO-SO.
THEREFORE, LOCALIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEAR POSSIBLE, BUT ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. MESOSCALE DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAYS CONVECTION WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, HENCE
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO START DEFINING WHICH DAYS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. IFR
CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS
RETURNING TO VFR AFTER 00Z. NORTHERLY WINDS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
CNU WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
SUNSET. CNU WILL HAVE GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, DIMINISHING
AROUND 04Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ072-093>096-
098>100.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...GC
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