234
FXUS63 KICT 210457
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POTENTIAL THROUGH 6PM THIS
EVENING.
- WARMING TREND MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY TURNING A BIT COOLER
AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
- PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING:
CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION, AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES HAVE RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.05-0.20", LOCALLY
HIGHER. WE'RE EXPECTING THIS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO GRADUALLY END FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS AREN'T EXPECTED, POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL FALLING OVER SATURATED SOILS MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE 2-4" RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM THE PAST 2
DAYS.
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...IN THE SHORT-TERM
(THROUGH 2-3PM), THIS THREAT REMAINS CONFINED TO LABETTE-NEOSHO
COUNTIES, CLOSEST TO THE NEAR-SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES PREVALENT JUST TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SMALL HAIL, 50-60
MPH WINDS, AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
FAST-MOVING BROKEN SQUALL LINE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
WE'LL BE MONITORING RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
FURTHER WEST (COWLEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-ELK-CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES) FROM
ABOUT 2-6PM CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
WEAK SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM THREAT. LATEST HRRR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MODESTLY LONG AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SPLITTING
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
50-60 MPH WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO, EITHER FROM LANDSPOUT PROCESSES IN VICINITY OF THE SLOW-
MOVING FRONTAL ZONE, OR WEAK SUPERCELL PROCESSES. WE'LL BE
MONITORING RADAR TRENDS FOR ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
LATE TUESDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY:
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN ACTIVE
PERIOD THUNDERSTORM-WISE, AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTAL ZONES OOZE SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT, AND AGAIN SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PER MODEL CLIMATOLOGIES,
FORECAST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOK TO BE SEASONABLY HIGH,
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ONLY SO-SO.
THEREFORE, LOCALIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL APPEAR POSSIBLE, BUT ORGANIZED WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. MESOSCALE DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAYS CONVECTION WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, HENCE
IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO START DEFINING WHICH DAYS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2025
THE FORECAST FOR AVIATION INTERESTS REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN
TONIGHT AS A THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER VIS CATS REMAINS
A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY.
CURRENTLY, MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CIGS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE
FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND GRADUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE LOWER CEILINGS TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY 8-9Z MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND WET GROUNDS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR BR OR
FG ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. THE
INITIAL THOUGHT TONIGHT WAS FOR SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
UNIFORM OUT OF THE WEST AND INCREASE HELPING TO DECREASE THE
CHANCES OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER, THESE SURFACE WINDS
ARE NOT MATERIALIZING, AND VISIBILITIES ARE BEGINNING TO DROP
IN LOCALIZED AREAS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 5 MILES. LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z MONDAY MORNING, AND
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
14-15Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page