488
FXUS63 KICT 211746
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY TURNING A BIT COOLER
AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
- PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
- A FEW STORMS TUESDAY EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON APR 21 2025
ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND LIFTS
ACROSS WISCONSIN. WITH SATURATED SOILS SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
WHERE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BUT
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR SEVERAL IMPULSES TO CROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE WEEK LEADING TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SETTLES ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AREA WIDE. THIS FRONT WILL
SERVE AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. SURFACE BASED
CAPE WILL BE AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT AND WHILE DEEP LAYER
FLOW ISN'T OVERLY STRONG, VEERING WITH HEIGHT COMBINED WITH THE
MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED WILL STILL LEAD TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 35 KTS WITH NEARLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. THIS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH
INCREASING CIN AWAY FROM THE FRONT AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ABLE TO SPREAD BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER TUESDAY AS THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
REMNANT BOUNDARIES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WON'T VARY MUCH EITHER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ANOTHER
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS FRONT COMBINED
WITH WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAY DIMINISH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME HENCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ONCE AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AS
TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL,
SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY, AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, A
STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITHIN THE
LOWEST 1500-2000 FT AGL FOR MOST SITES EXCEPT CNU.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...ADK
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