587
FXUS63 KICT 220345
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1045 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THIS WEEK.
- PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. POSSIBLY A LULL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
OFF-AND-ON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AS A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
FLINT HILLS. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER 50S-LOW 60S DEWPOINTS IN
CONCERT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S-LOW 80S AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MODEST TO STRONG MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE. THERE MAY BE SOME CAPPING
ISSUES TO OVERCOME, GIVEN ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
SUBTLE-AT-BEST MID TO UPPER FORCING. CONSEQUENTLY, UNSURE HOW MANY
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES, ALTHOUGH ANY
STORMS REMAINING ALIVE INTO THE EVENING WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS IN CONCERT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND
STRONG MULTICELLS, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELL
THAT REMAINS SUSTAINED INTO THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AND ENLARGES LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. OVERALL TORNADO
THREAT APPEARS LOW THOUGH GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGHER LCLS.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATER TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND COVERAGE BECOME MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE RIPPLE IN THE MID/UPPER
FLOW, WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LAYING OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT, SERVING AS A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES. AS IS THE CASE DURING THUNDERSTORM
SEASON, MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL PLAY A BIG PART IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SO IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
START DEFINING WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING, TRAVERSING EAST INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, KEEPING FLOW SOUTHWESTERLY. AT 850 MB, THE
GFS HAS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY 18Z, COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST
ADVECTION COULD HELP INITIATE SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH BASED ON MODEL
DISCREPANCY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT COMES THROUGH, KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING
COMBINED WITH THIS FRONT MAY DIMINISH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT RIPPLES RIDING THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING INCREASE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES INTO WESTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY, RETURNING FLOW
TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
FLOW STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON APR 21 2025
A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOW-
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT OVER
CENTRAL KS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR SPECIFIC MENTIONS AT THIS TIME.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK/GC
AVIATION...MWM
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