773
FXUS63 KICT 222331
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
- BETTER CHANCES MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO IMPACT THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
CURRENT ADVECTED LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO MOVING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL
EJECT OUT IN THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEEPENING MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE, AND SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND NORTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
FEW OF THOSE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK.
THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
OTHERWISE A COUPLE SCENARIOS COULD PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING POSSIBLE ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM REDEVELOPMENT
FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
FOCUSES ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALOFT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THAT
SCENARIO SEEMS LESS FAVORABLE WITH LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENING,
HOWEVER A SECOND SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH
NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW COMMENCES. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD THEN TRACK EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS AIDED ALONG BY LOW-LEVEL JET/INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS REACHING
STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY
MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MATERIALIZE ON FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
KANSAS. THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN
OVER SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF
THIS UPPER TROUGH KICKING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WHEN THE
NEXT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL FORCE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
KANSAS PERIOD AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. AGAIN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING/EVOLUTIONS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERACTING
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2025
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS,
IN VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. COVERED THIS THREAT WITH A PROB30 AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
CNU THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO REMOVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT, AS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKS RATHER
MARGINAL. HIT-OR-MISS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT GIVEN WEAK
FORCING, THE PREDICTABILITY IS LOW, SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF 00Z
TAFS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK
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