644
FXUS63 KICT 230820
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
- BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 2 AM
THIS MORNING. TODAY'S PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN NORMAL AS FORCING REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT
COULD GENERATE NEW CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS OF 2 AM, THE MAIN
BOUNDARIES OF CONCERN ARE THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO WICHITA, AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW POSITIONED NEAR
EMPORIA. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NEXT HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO THE MAIN QUESTION AND
CONCERN IS WILL THE LIFT FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LLJ AND GRAVITY WAVES FROM THE
TEXAS CONVECTION BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER
THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT SO WENT WITH A BROAD BRUSH OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE NEAR THE KS/CO STATE LINE AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR THE NE/KS STATE LINE. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL AND MOVE
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO A MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR EAST THEY MAKE IT BEFORE
DISSIPATING IS ONCE AGAIN IN QUESTION. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
WON'T CHANGE MUCH WITH MUCAPE REMAINING AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KTS WHICH WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY IS ANOTHER LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS AGAIN THE
ENVIRONMENT WON'T CHANGE MUCH WITHIN THE WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FROM
TODAY'S CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN IT DOES EVENTUALLY
MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT COOLER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND
IT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A BIT AS WELL
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WHICH MAY BE VERY
CLOSE TO OR IN OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT AS WE BETTER
REFINE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT A DRY PERIOD MAY BE
INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE U.S. WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
HENCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE
RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL THE WAVE ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS IS DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND
SLN FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS, AND CNU COULD BE IMPACTED AS WELL
OVERNIGHT. AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING, LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS WITHIN A
ZONE OF STRENGTHENING 850-700MB WARM/MOIST ADVECTION, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DRIBBLING EAST THROUGH THE DAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST, SO ONLY INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS IN THE 06Z TAFS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...ADK
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