203
FXUS63 KICT 231147
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
- BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 2 AM
THIS MORNING. TODAY'S PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
THAN NORMAL AS FORCING REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT
COULD GENERATE NEW CONVECTION LATER TODAY. AS OF 2 AM, THE MAIN
BOUNDARIES OF CONCERN ARE THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR
HUTCHINSON TO WICHITA, AND ANOTHER OUTFLOW POSITIONED NEAR
EMPORIA. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH THE NEXT HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE NOT EXPECTED OVER
THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL TONIGHT. SO THE MAIN QUESTION AND
CONCERN IS WILL THE LIFT FROM THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED
WITH THE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LLJ AND GRAVITY WAVES FROM THE
TEXAS CONVECTION BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER
THE PLACE IN REGARDS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT SO WENT WITH A BROAD BRUSH OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR THE KS/CO STATE
LINE AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE NE/KS STATE LINE.
THESE STORMS SHOULD CONGEAL AND MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO A MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT CONFIDENCE ON HOW
FAR EAST THEY MAKE IT BEFORE DISSIPATING IS ONCE AGAIN IN
QUESTION. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WON'T CHANGE MUCH WITH MUCAPE
REMAINING AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 30 KTS WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY IS ANOTHER LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS AGAIN THE
ENVIRONMENT WON'T CHANGE MUCH WITHIN THE WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FROM
TODAY'S CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON HOW QUICKLY
THIS FRONT WILL ARRIVE REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT SHOULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHEN IT DOES EVENTUALLY
MOVE THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING SLIGHT COOLER AIR INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER 60S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND
IT. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A BIT AS WELL
AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WHICH MAY BE VERY
CLOSE TO OR IN OUR FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT AS WE BETTER
REFINE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT A DRY PERIOD MAY BE
INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONTO THE U.S. WEST COAST ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA AGAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
HENCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE
RISE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNTIL THE WAVE ACTUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND THIS
CLUSTER OF ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT GBD AND RSL THIS MORNING
WHERE A PREVAILING MENTION HAS BEEN INTRODUCED HOWEVER THE
STORMS MAY ALSO IMPACT HUT AND SLN ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE THERE IS
LOWER HENCE ONLY A PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME. ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BRING A DROP IN VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREA WIDE HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING
MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AND SHIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY
MORNING HOWEVER THESE MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WI
AVIATION...WI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page