022
FXUS63 KICT 232328
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
628 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GOOD STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SEVERE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FLOODING.
- SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR MONDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FLINT HILLS INTO SOUTHEAST KS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN IA, ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN KS.
700-500MB LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS TWO SUBTLE MID
UPPER FEATURES: ONE LIFTING SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS/INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH ANOTHER LIFTING OVER FAR NORTHEAST NM.
STORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL KS AS THE SUBTLE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE APPROACHED THE AREA, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASED 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS NOW MOVED OFF INTO NORTHEAST KS AND LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED BY
THE SURFACE FRONT. PERSISTENT MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION HAS
ALSO MAINTAINED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL KS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP OUT OVER WESTERN KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL JET GETS CRANKED-UP AND WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES
APPROACHES. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. WITH LACK OF
GOOD MID/UPPER FLOW, STORMS OVER WESTERN KS WILL MIGRATE VERY
SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND MAY NOT START AFFECTING OUR WESTERN
FRINGES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NEAR I-135 CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
THU. THERE ARE ALSO A COUPLE CAMS DIVING ONE OF THE STORM
COMPLEXES SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OK VERY LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL
MAINTAIN 850-700MB THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE AREA ON THU WITH
SOME WEAK UPPER IMPULSES EXPECTED SLIDE THROUGH. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST SCT SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SHEAR WILL STILL NOT BE THAT GREAT, BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM. IN
ADDITION, WITH PW VALUES 150-200% OF NORMAL, STRONGER STORMS
SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
CANADA THU INTO THU EVENING AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. COLD
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER AROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR FRI INTO SAT, WE WILL GET INTO
SOME WEAK UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OUR STORM CHANCES.
OUR BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE
SAT NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS BACK UP.
BY 12Z MON, UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN A DRYLINE
LAYING OUT FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT MON AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS QUICKLY GOING SEVERE, WITH ALL HAZARDS
LIKELY. WITH THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FURTHER NORTH, FEEL THAT ACTIVITY MAYBE A BIT MORE
ISO-SCT DOWN OUR WAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE
AN ISSUE WITH THIS EVENT WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR ALSO IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED APR 23 2025
A CHALLENGING TAF PERIOD IS AHEAD. ONGOING STORMS ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL KS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF CNU BUT GIVEN THE SMALL
POTENTIAL HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 1-4Z. NEXT, STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN KS ARE LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY MAKE IT INTO CENTRAL
KS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED TO TRY AND
TIME OUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF ARRIVAL BUT LATER AMENDMENTS
ARE PROBABLE. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH CONVECTION AND
COVERAGE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS ARE AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF
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